Andvari's Douglas Ott, in collaboration with Lawrence Hamtil of Fortune Financial, is pleased to release a new 14-page white paper: "Going South: Implications of Business and Population Migration". The paper brings together many of the data and anecdotes showing the trend of people and businesses migrating to the South remains firmly in place. In addition to many charts and graphs, Doug and Lawrence pulled together over two dozen quotes from a variety of executives whose businesses are benefiting from this migration. Below are a few excerpts from the collaboration.
DECADES OF BUSINESS MOVEMENT
One unique dataset Doug and Lawrence found is the net migration numbers of firms moving to a new region of the country. The overwhelming benefactor has been the South for many decades.
MIGRATION CAUSES AND EFFECTS
Taxes have been one reason for the migration of businesses and individuals. With the chart below, Doug and Lawrence show the large tax gap between two high tax states (California and New York) and two low tax states (Texas and Florida). Since 1980, the tax gap has only widened for these two pairs of states.
One of the many, obvious effects of migration to the South has been faster growth all around. Here you can see the per capita income levels of a handful of Southern states versus the United States since 1947. All four states have grown at a faster rate than the national average.
NOTABLE QUOTES
In the white paper, we have over two dozen quotes from executives commenting on the outsized opportunity they have in the South. They represent businesses in retailing, home construction, home services, infrastructure, and regional banks. Here are quotes from just two regional banks with a heavy presence in the South: Synovus and Truist.
ANDVARI TAKEAWAY
For many reasons—pro-business policies, improved infrastructure, and a milder climate—the South has enjoyed strong economic growth. The region has absorbed a large population influx from 1) simply less fortunate states and 2) states with policies inimical to business growth and productivity. This trend has persisted for several decades and it shows no signs of abating.
The long-term shift of businesses and people to the South has real implications for major industries at the national and regional level. Because of this, we believe it is important for investors to factor this major secular change into their analysis of industries and of specific companies.
Please download the 14-page white paper for the full array of charts, graphs, and quotes. Feel free to share by e-mail or social media and let us know what you think!
DISCLOSURES AND END NOTES
The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Andvari and Fortune have no affiliation. Opinions and views expressed herein reflect the current opinions and views of the authors, Douglas Ott and Lawrence Hamtil, as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice.
Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. This document and the information contained herein are for educational and informational purposes only and you should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security. You should not assume any of the securities discussed in this report are or will be profitable, or that recommendations we make in the future will be profitable. Consider the investment objectives, risks, and expenses before investing.
Investment strategies managed by Andvari Associates LLC and Fortune Financial may have a position in the securities or assets discussed in this article. Securities mentioned may not be representative of the Andvari's or Fortune's current or future investments. Clients of Andvari and Fortune may own shares in any of the securities mentioned in this article. Andvari and Fortune may re-evaluate their respective holdings in any mentioned securities and may buy, sell or cover certain positions without notice.
See the full Disclosures at the end of the white paper "Going South: Implications of Business and Population Migration".
